Post-Super Tuesday analysis
February 12, 2008 -- Graeme Boushey shares his thoughts on the political landscape following the 22 state primaries held Feb. 5. Boushey is an assistant professor of political science at SF State. His expertise includes California politics, American politics, public policy processes and political decision-making.
What surprised you about the results of Super Tuesday?
In California, the gap between Clinton and Obama closed overnight, but Obama
didn't gain enough ground to win. I was surprised that Clinton won the
state by such a large margin.
For the Republicans, Mike Huckabee's stronger than expected showing was interesting, and clearly shaped Mitt Romney's decision to drop out of the race.
Some Republican voters say McCain isn't conservative enough. Who
will they turn to now that Romney is out of the race?
Many people will either support Huckabee or simply decline to participate
in the elections. The latter is a real concern for the Republican Party,
especially at a time when Democrats are turning out in droves to support
their candidates. If the conservative Republican base isn't inspired by their
candidate for president, they may simply stay home on election day, tipping
the election in favor of the Democrats.
Given the close contest on the Democratic side, what role will superdelegates
play in the Democratic convention this summer?
We might not see a front-runner until the convention, and, if that is the
case, it will be up to the superdelegates to decide the future leader. Superdelegates
are party insiders, members of Congress and national party leaders who are
free to back any candidate at the convention. They make up 1/5 of all voters
at a primary convention.
What will these superdelegates look for in a leader?
Before primaries were introduced in the early 1970s, party leaders decided
on the leadership candidate, making a choice based on electability and
who was a proven party member. On this basis, if the nomination comes down
to the superdelegates' vote, I believe they would vote for Clinton. She
fits the criteria: an insider, a party loyalist who knows how the machine
works and who has the political clout of her husband, Bill Clinton.
Why is Missouri hailed as an important indicator of what's to come?
Historically, the state of Missouri has always correctly predicted who the
president will be. The state straddles the South and the Midwest and includes
voters of both political cultures. On Super Tuesday, the state swung at
the last moment from Clinton to Obama with a close 49-48 result, which
shows that in the 2008 primaries, Missouri is confused as the rest of us.
Which states will you watch closely in the coming weeks?
Obviously Texas and Ohio are key because of their number of delegates, but
Virginia will also be interesting. Virginia voters have backed a Republican
presidential candidate for the last 44 years or so, but there are signs
of a shift in favor of the Democrats. For example, the last two governors
of Virginia were Democrats. If this trend continues, it will indicate an
important shift in votes away from Republicans and towards Democrats. For
the primary election, Virginia is important because it has a fair number
of delegates at stake for candidates from each party. Secondly, Virginia
and Maryland hold their primaries on the same day, providing good measures
of candidate viability in the South.
-- Elaine Bible
Share this story: