Post-Super Tuesday analysis
February 12, 2008 -- Graeme Boushey shares his thoughts on the political landscape following the 22 state primaries held Feb. 5. Boushey is an assistant professor of political science at SF State. His expertise includes California politics, American politics, public policy processes and political decision-making.
Assistant Professor of Political Science Graeme Boushey.
What surprised you about the results of Super Tuesday?
In California, the gap between Clinton and Obama closed overnight, but Obama
didn't gain enough ground to win. I was surprised that Clinton carried the
state.
For the Republicans, Mike Huckabee's stronger than expected showing was interesting, and clearly shaped Mitt Romney's decision to drop out of the race.
Some Republican voters say McCain isn't conservative enough. Who will
they turn to now that Romney is out of the race?
Many people will either support Huckabee or simply decline to participate in
the elections. The latter is a real concern for the Republican Party, especially
at a time when Democrats are turning out in droves to support their candidates.
If the conservative Republican base isn't inspired by their candidate for president,
they may simply stay home on election day, tipping the election in favor of
the Democrats.
Given the close contest on the Democratic side, what role will superdelegates
play in the Democratic convention this summer?
We might not see a front-runner until the convention, and, if that is the case,
it will be up to the superdelegates to decide the future leader. Superdelegates
are party insiders, members of Congress and national party leaders who are
free to back any candidate at the convention. They make up 40 percent of the
delegates needed to secure a nomination.
What will these superdelegates look for in a leader?
Before primaries were introduced in the early 1970s, party leaders decided
on the leadership candidate, making a choice based on electability and who
was a proven party member. On this basis, if the nomination comes down to
the superdelegates' vote, I believe they would vote for Clinton. She fits
the criteria: an insider, a party loyalist who knows how the machine works
and who has the political clout of her husband, Bill Clinton.
Why is Missouri hailed as an important indicator of what's to come?
Historically, the state of Missouri has always correctly predicted who the
president will be. The state straddles the South and the Midwest and includes
voters of both political cultures. On Super Tuesday, the state swung at the
last moment from Clinton to Obama with a close 49-48 result, which shows
that in the 2008 primaries, Missouri is confused as the rest of us.
Which states will you watch closely in the coming weeks?
Obviously Texas and Ohio are key because of their number of delegates, but
Virginia will also be interesting. Virginia voters have backed a Republican
presidential candidate for the last 44 years or so, but there are signs of
a shift in favor of the Democrats. For example, the last two governors of
Virginia were Democrats. If this trend continues, it will indicate an important
shift in votes away from Republicans and towards Democrats. For the primary
election, Virginia is important because it has a fair number of delegates
at stake for candidates from each party. Secondly, Virginia and Maryland
hold their primaries on the same day, providing good measures of candidate
viability in the South.
-- Elaine Bible
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