College
of Science & Engineering Alumni Newsletter
Fall
1997
Batten Down the Hatches?
John Monteverdi, Chair of
Geosciences and Professor of Meteorology, studies severe and unusual weather
events in California, including tornadoes and heavy thunderstorms. He is
very doubtful that the 1997-1998 El Niño will result in the extraordinarily
high rainfall that has been publicized. "The warm water off the West Coast
is not El Niño," stated Monteverdi recently. Although regions of
the Pacific are experiencing very high ocean temperatures, Monteverdi stresses
that he has seen no respectable meteorological projections that link this
to predictions of rainfall levels 3 to 4 times higher than normal. The
record of the eight well-documented past El Niños leads him to conclude
that we are likely to have wetter conditions than normal in San Francisco
Bay Area this year—perhaps approaching two times normal. But two of the
well-recorded El Niños in the past were accompanied by less rain
than usual: "I wouldn’t be surprised if it is drier than normal."
Far northern California may experience drier-than-normal conditions, while
Southern California may receive more than two times normal rainfall, he
predicts.
